The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive the Post-Human Era [30 Year Assessment]

This 1993 paper by Vernor Vinge, retrieved from the NASA Technical Reports Server, makes bold predictions about the state of technology today.

Shift to Singularity

Vinge details a monumental technological shift underway that throughout the remaining ’90s, 2000s, 2010s creating a pathway for:

  • Creating awake, super intelligent computers
  • Transforming large computer networks into a single intelligent entity
  • Developing deeply integrated computer-human interfaces Enhancing human intellect through biological science

30 Year Anniversary

Thirty years later, the premise is up for evaluation. Though Vinge predicts the shift to singularity would happen within 30 years (which would make it past due), he does allow some wiggle room.

He’d be surprised if singularity occurred before 2005, he writes, and if it wasn’t reached by 2030.

How have the predictions panned out so far?

Super Intelligent Computers

While computing technology has advanced significantly, we haven’t reached the point of sentient computers with consciousness or self awareness.

Intelligent Networks

Large computer networks have become more impressive and integrated but they haven’t merged into a single super intelligent network.

Computer/Human Interfaces

There’s been remarkable progress in this area, but mostly for medical applications.

Biological Enhancements

There have been advances in genetics and neurosciences but we’re not yet significantly augmenting intellect biologically for superhuman cognition.

Read the Report

Read the full paper here

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#digitaltwin #digitaltransformation #industry40 #singularity #artificialintelligence #ai #machinelearning #robotics #humanoid #humanoidrobot #humanoidrobots #digitalthread #plm #digitalengineering #cad #3d #bigdata #blockchain #iiot #4ir #manufacturing #digitaltwins #futuretechnology #futuretech #smartcity #iot #internetofthings #innovation #quantumcomputing #digitalimmortality #transhumanism #simulation

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The virtual replicas of physical entities are revolutionizing industries from manufacturing to healthcare to urban planning with their advanced simulation capabilities.

Let's examine how we got here and where we may be heading.

Emerging from the aerospace and automotive industries, digital twin technology is now gaining popularity across sectors. The virtual replicas of real-world entities are used for comprehensive simulations, predictive maintenance, and virtual prototyping.

0:17 Alan Turing's Computing Machinery and Intelligence
Though it’s primarily focused on AI, Turing’s paper provides the theoretical and computational foundations necessary to build smart, data-driven virtual models of physical assets.

1:06 First Commercial Computer (UNIVAC I)
The UNIVAC, the first commercially produced computer in the United States, is released in 1951. First deployed at the US Census Bureau, the UNIVAC I offers a glimpse into the potential of computing to handle vast amounts of data quickly and accurately to solve complex problems.

1:59 Monte Carlo Simulations
Monte Carlo simulations go mainstream around 1952. The experimentation method was initially developed for the Manhattan Project efforts to create an atomic bomb during World War II.

2:10 Development of FORTRAN
In the mid-50s, IBM’s FORTRAN delivers the computational power necessary for early forms of digital modeling and simulations. Its ability to handle large-scale computations and numerical analysis advances technology required for future digital twinning.

2:37 Launch of Sputnik and Advances in Aerospace Simulation
In 1957, the Soviet Union launches Sputnik, touching off the Space Race with the United States that accelerates simulation technology. The pressure pushes scientists to develop superior computer models to predict satellite paths and behavior in space.

3:09 Digital Simulation in Aerospace
In the early 1960s, the aerospace industry begins using digital simulations to design and test aircraft.

3:22 Introduction of CAD (Computer-Aided Design)
Ivan Sutherland develops Sketchpad for computer-aided design. It revolutionizes the way engineers and designers work by enabling precise digital drawings and models.

3:33 1964 - Jay Forrester Introduces System Dynamics
In 1964, Jay Forrester introduces System Dynamics, a methodology for modeling and simulating complex systems.

3:57 1970 - Apollo 13 Lunar Mission
In April 1970, the Apollo 13 mission to the Moon almost ends tragically.

4:16 1982 - Release of Autodesk's AutoCAD
In the early 1980s, CAD software enters the mainstream.

4:45 Advancements in Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) Systems
Throughout the 1990s, PLM platforms integrate various tools and processes, including CAD, to ensure consistency and accuracy of data and enhanced communication across departments.

5:21 Dr. Michael Grieves Coins the Term "Digital Twin"
In 2002, Michael Grieves introduces the concept of the digital twin at a Society of Manufacturing Engineers conference in Michigan.

5:47 NASA's Strategic Roadmap for Digital Twin Technology
In 2010, NASA develops a strategic roadmap for digital twin adoption for future missions.

6:09 Industry 4.0 Concept Introduced
The fourth industrial revolution begins in earnest in 2011 as the Industry 4.0 concept is introduced at Germany’s Hannover Messe.

6:40 General Electric's Digital Twin for Industrial Internet
In 2017, General Electric introduces its digital twin technology for industrial applications.

7:02 Microsoft's Azure Digital Twins Platform
The 2018 launch of Microsoft’s Azure Digital Twins platform accelerates adoption with a comprehensive cloud-based service.

7:25 COVID-19 Pandemic Accelerates Digital Twin Adoption
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerates the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies, including digital twins, as companies seek to mitigate the disruptions in their operations, supply chains, and workforces.

7:37 Siemens Xcelerator Platform
Siemens introduces its Xcelerator platform in 2021.

8:00 NVIDIA Omniverse Platform
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8:20 Manufacturers Embrace the Industrial Metaverse
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8:35 2030s - Digital Twins Become More Intelligent and Autonomous

9:11 2040s - Synthetic Holos Replace Digital Twins


#digitaltwin #digitaltransformation #industry40 #singularity #artificialintelligence #ai #machinelearning #robotics #humanoid #humanoidrobot #humanoidrobots #digitalthread #plm #digitalengineering #cad #3d #bigdata #blockchain #iiot #4ir #manufacturing #digitaltwins #futuretechnology #futuretech #smartcity #iot #internetofthings #innovation #quantumcomputing #digitalimmortality #transhumanism #simulation

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